The $200 Million Catastrophe
Joker 2 and the future of Hollywood
It’s been a rough week for Hollywood.
The second Joker movie, Joker: Folie à Deux, was released worldwide.
And it did not go as expected…
Folie à Deux is sequel to the 2019 film starring Joaquin Phoenix— which was a box office juggernaut, grossing over $1 billion.
Audiences around the world identified with its anti-establishment message.
The lead actor, Joaquin Phoenix, even received the Academy Award for best actor.
Considering the widespread success of the first installment, most people (including myself) expected similar success for this new entry.
But wow we were wrong.
Critical and Audience Reaction:
Folie à Deux has been reviewed poorly by both critics and audiences.
Take a look at the Rotten Tomatoes score:
The CinemaScore is even more interesting. This is an exit poll taken across the United States for every big new movie that hits theaters. Audiences are asked for a ranking on a scale of A+ to F.
Anything below a B- is considered troubling, and may have box office ramifications.
Folie à Deux was rated incredibly low: D.
That is the lowest score ever given for a comic book film.
To put it in perspective, another comic book bomb from this year, the widely panned Madame Web, received a C+.
Box Office:
Folie à Deux was initially expected to have a similar domestic box office opening as the first film, somewhere around $100 million.
The terrible critics and audience scores definitely had an impact.
The film opened to only $39 million.
And to make matters worse, the budgets for the original film and its sequel differ greatly.
The budget for the first Joker film? $55 million.
The budget for the sequel? $200 million.
And that doesn’t include another 50% - 100% of a film’s budget that is typically spent on advertising in the film industry.
So the total spent on Folie à Deux is probably somewhere closer to $300-$400 million.
Forget a huge payday for the studio. It will be a miracle if the film breaks even.
This is a catastrophe for Warner Bros. and the film industry as a whole.
Let’s take a look at:
What went wrong
How this impacts Hollywood
The value of proposition of films vs. books
What Went Wrong:
I’ve been keeping up with this story because it’s such a surprise.
How does a movie studio screw up so badly?
The first Joker was an unbelievable success — and an amazing film, in my opinion.
You’d think the creators would be able to recognize why they found such success.
And also recognize the audience that helped them achieve it.
But the most shocking thing about Joker is:
The film turns on its audience.
I’m not going to get into spoilers… but the story feels like an apology for the first movie.
Oh, you identified with the first film and its anti-establishment message? Too bad. You’re an idiot and we don’t actually want your support.
Additionally, the sequel is a musical for some reason.
I’m not against this idea, it could have been done in an interesting way, but the execution is terrible. The story often comes to a halt so the characters can sing strange covers of popular songs.
This is still a developing story, but it seems like Warner Bros. gave full creative control to the director of the first film, Todd Phillips, as he was developing the sequel. He didn’t take any feedback from the studio and was allowed to run wild. There weren’t even any test screenings, which is commonplace in the film industry. Especially when so much money is on the line.
How This Impacts Hollywood:
General audiences having already been shifting toward entertainment that doesn’t involve driving to their local movie theater.
This was accelerated by the COVID lockdowns:
We all got used to staying inside the house and finding ways to entertain ourselves:
Streaming services
Video games
YouTube
Books
In this post-COVID era, Hollywood has been seeming to try its best to alienate audiences with low quality films.
Since I was traveling in Southeast Asia for so much of this year, I’ve probably seen more movies than the average person because the tickets were so cheap:
Argylle
Madam Web
Abigail
Civil War
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire
A Quiet Place: Day One
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Deadpool and Wolverine
Longlegs
Alien: Romulus
Twisters
Joker: Folie à Deux
Of the twelve that I’ve watched, Deadpool and Wolverine and Abigail were the only two that were enjoyable.
The others ranged from disappointing to awful.
The poor quality is such a problem because it impacts consumer habits.
Hollywood doesn’t want people falling out of the routine of the going to the theater, but it seems that it’s already happened.
Of all the films listed above, Deadpool and Wolverine is the only one that most people I know have seen. It wasn’t too long ago that it seemed like there were must-see movies every month or so. No longer.
Films vs. Books:
How much does a movie ticket cost at your local theater?
I paid about $12 to see Joker: Folie à Deux, but that was a matinee price.
The experience lasted about two and a half hours and I felt like I’d wasted my time and money by the end.
When I left the theater, I thought: won’t be back here for a while.
Now compare that to the price of a book and the amount of time you spend with it.
The day before seeing Joker, I purchased Disclosure by Michael Crichton on my Kindle for $6.
Have you read Disclosure by Michael Crichton?
The book was incredible— a psychological thriller set in the offices of corporate America. Highly recommend it.
And I ended up spending around fifteen hours reading it.
So what’s the value for money:
Film: $12 for 2.5 hours
Book: $6 for 15 hours
Other books will certainly cost more, but I make this point to show the other forms of entertainment out there that Hollywood as to compete with.
Everyone only has a certain amount of time every week for entertainment.
Will consumers continue to spend the money it costs to take a risk on Hollywood’s new offerings?
I’m guessing not.
There are too many other ways to spend your time.
Even if you are interesting in seeing something from Hollywood, a monthly subscription to a streaming service will cost about the same as a movie ticket.
It will be interesting to see if Hollywood will be able to continue playing this game.
For one thing, film budgets will need to be lowered dramatically.
There’s no reason why Joker 2 should have cost $200 million.
- C.S.M.
Did you see Joker: Folie à Deux? What did you think?
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